Our economy continues to grow, sales tax receipts growth year over year are exceeding inflation, and household income growth is outpacing the state’s average. This is good news—but it is not evenly spread across our businesses.

Some of our retailers are doing well, and many are not. A number of our wineries are performing below last year. Our lodging sector had its best revenue levels ever last spring. Yet, many short-term rentals are now on the market because of significantly reduced revenues.

We are in uneven and uncertain times.

After working in the hospitality business for years as well as other industries, I found one lesson that surfaced again and again: you rarely have the luxury of waiting for perfect information before making a decision.

A customer has complained. The restaurant is over-booked. The hotel has empty rooms. A key employee has resigned. The market has changed. You make the best decision you can with the information available—and then you adjust.

That is why a recent Harvard Business Review article by Cheryl Strauss Einhorn caught my attention. Her premise is that in uncertain times, we may not need more answers as much as we need better questions.

I think that is particularly relevant for the small businesses that make up our Gillespie County economy.

One question she raises is essentially this: Will this decision still make sense a year from now?

When business slows, our first instinct is to cut. Reduce hours. Reduce staff. Reduce marketing. Reduce inventory. Those may sometimes be the right decisions. But before making them, I think it is worth asking whether we are solving a short-term problem by creating a longer-term one. I have seen businesses cut marketing when sales slow, only to discover later that rebuilding customer awareness is much harder than maintaining it.

Another question is: What will this decision teach the people around us?

Leadership is often easiest when business is good. It becomes much more visible when business is difficult. Employees are watching. Customers are watching. Other business owners are watching. How we respond to uncertainty becomes part of our reputation.

Einhorn also asks us to consider whether what we are experiencing is a temporary storm—or a change in the climate. That may be one of the most important questions for Gillespie County businesses today.

Have consumer shopping habits permanently changed? Has the way visitors choose lodging changed? Is the wine consumer becoming more selective? Are technology and artificial intelligence changing how customers discover and purchase products?

If these are structural changes rather than temporary disruptions, waiting for things to “get back to normal” may not be a strategy.

The final question is one I particularly appreciate: What is the cost of waiting?

We are generally good at calculating the risk of making the wrong decision. We are not always as good at calculating the cost of making no decision.

After decades observing and being immersed in business, I have come to believe that uncertainty is not something which can be eliminated. It is something a business has to learn to manage. That may be particularly true today in Gillespie County.

We have remarkably resilient entrepreneurs. They have navigated recessions, pandemics, floods, staffing challenges, inflation and changing consumer habits. They don't have all the answers—and neither do I.

Perhaps we don't need all the answers. Sometimes, we simply need to ask better questions.

And then have the courage to make the best decision we can with what we know today.